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Simpler Than Manifold

Manifold is great for forecasting enthusiasts. Poly.fan is built for friend groups who just want to make predictions without the complexity.

Try Poly.fan free
Manifold Markets

Public forecasting platform

Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform focused on forecasting. Markets are public, anyone can create them, and there is a strong focus on calibration and forecasting accuracy.

Recommended
Poly.fan

Private predictions for your crew

Poly.fan focuses on private, group-based prediction markets. Less about forecasting accuracy, more about having fun with people you know.

Feature comparison

Feature
Poly.fan
Manifold Markets
Private groups
Public markets
Play money
Custom subdomain
Forecasting focus
Simple interface
Calibration tracking
Group leaderboards
Discord integration
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Best for each use case

Serious forecasting

Tracking prediction accuracy over time

Manifold Markets

Friend group fun

Casual predictions with friends

Poly.fan

Public discourse

Commenting on public events

Manifold Markets

Office pools

Private workplace predictions

Poly.fan

Community building

Public community engagement

Manifold Markets

Team engagement

Private team building activity

Poly.fan

The verdict

Use Manifold for public forecasting and calibration tracking. Use Poly.fan for private, fun predictions with your group.

Try Poly.fan free